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Is China’s housing market building up a bubble rivaling that of Japan’s in the late ’80s, or the US’s before 2007? Will China’s debts implode and foreign exchange reserves hemorrhage? Will there be more massive job losses because of efforts to take on overcapacity? These are the hypotheticals that Chinese and international observers and investors can’t stop discussing, and exactly the ones that China’s policymakers are trying to avoid.
A “good reserve of policy instruments”in China’s “toolkit” will tackle internal and external risks in order to achieve China’s growth target this year, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at a press conference on March 16. He spoke shortly after the conclusion of this year’s Two Sessions, the annual meetings of China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress （NPC）, as well as the country’s political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. During the two-week NPC session, ministers of Li’s cabinet pledged to stabilize the housing market, relieve debts and overcapacity, and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship to secure the pace and quality of growth both this year and over the next five. The goal is to build a “moderately prosperous society”by 2020, an ambition set out in the government’s 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020）, which was approved by the NPC during the Two Sessions.
It appears that the implementation of market-driven reform has recently been nudged higher up the central government’s agenda than ever before. This reform will test the resolution and skill of its designers. The biggest challenge its architects face is that the market does not necessarily do as it is told.
Pressure Points
With US$1 million, you can buy 46 square meters of real estate in prime locations in Shanghai, or 58 in Beijing, respectively ranked eighth and 10th on a list of world cities with the highest property prices in 2015, according to a March 2 report published by real estate firms Knight Frank Residential and Douglas Elliman. Those 2015 figures are already significantly outdated because housing prices in China’s biggest cities have rocketed since the beginning of the year. A new, more worrying phenomenon is that various methods of financial finagling have helped underfinanced households in those cities to circumvent the minimum down payment requirement. As NPC delegate and mayor of southwestern China’s Chongqing municipality Huang Qifan warned during the meetings, zero down payment mortgages and soaring property prices were exactly the recipe that produced the US subprime mortgage crisis that hit in 2007.
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