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On July 12, the temporary tribunal at The Hague announced its ruling on the South China Sea arbitration, which was initiated at the unilateral request of the Philippine government, ignoring history and facts to side with the Philippines and vote down China’s South China Sea proposition including the ninedotted line. The Chinese government published a series of statements, solemnly declaring the award null and void and lacking binding force, and that China neither accepts nor recognizes it. Not only has the ruling damaged China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, but it will sour ongoing bilateral negotiations between China and the Philippines.
Right now, the Chinese government insists on separate policies for the new Philippine government and the arbitration, respectively. On the arbitration, China’s stance has been clear： The former Philippine government unilaterally brought the arbitration on the South China Sea, against International Law. The temporary arbitral tribunal has no jurisdictional rights, making the award completely null and void and lacking any manner of binding force. As for the dispute on territory and maritime delimitation, China won’t accept any dispute settlement through a third party, nor will it accept any solution pressed on China.
Concerning the new Philippine government, China has shown good will to the new government. President Xi Jinping has frequently contacted Rodrigo Duterte, including congratulating him on his succesul campaign for the presidency. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines he also expressed great optimi for the development of friendly Sino-Philippine relations.
Benigno Aquino III left the arbitration mess to his successor. The Chinese government will do its best to distinguish between moves of the two generations of the Philippine leadership and distancing the new Philippine government from the arbitration.
Nevertheless, the new government is still closely attached to the arbitration. They can’t just oid it. Domestically, President Duterte has to find a way to oid critici for compromising with China. Internationally, he has to endure pressure from the United States. The Philippines will he no backer to bargain with China if it loses American support.
However, the new government has opportunistically considered using the award, forable for the Philippines, as a chip in its negotiations with China. Therefore, the fruit of the arbitration, be it chip or thorn, will be decided by the attitude of the new government.
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